A. brazilian automotive sales

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Competitividade e potencial do setor
automotivo brasileiro
Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010 –
O Desafio da Competitividade
São Paulo, May 17, 2010

Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx

A. Brazilian automotive sales
Attractive growth with even larger potential

Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx

2

In 2010, Brazil has firmly establisheditself as a major global player
Top markets worldwide 2010 [m vehicles]
VEHICLE SALES

VEHICLE PRODUCTION

1

China

13.8

1

China

13.3

2

USA

11.5

2

Japan

8.2

3

Japan

4.4

3

USA

6.8

4

BRAZIL

3.2

4

Germany

4.7

5

Germany

2.8

5

Korea

3.3

6

France

2.4

6

BRAZIL

3.3

7

Italy

2.3

7

India2.7

8

India

2.2

8

France

2.1

9

UK

1.9

9

Spain

2.1

10

Russia

1.6

10

Canada

1.9

Source: JD Power; Roland Berger

Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx

3

To foster future production growth, Brazil needs to define a clear
agenda
The Brazilian automotive industry at cross roads
PHASE 1:

PHASE 2:

Emergence of BrazilUncertainty and
restructuring

POSSIBLE LEVERS TO
ENSURE FUTURE
GROWTH

PHASE 3:
Macroeconomic stability

Which
Which way forward
for Brazil?

Brazilian
Brazilian vehicle production
[m vehicles]
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5

GLOBALIZATION
> New players …
> New products …
> New rules …

1.0

ESTABLISHED OEMs

0.5
0.0
1988

1992

1996

Source: JD Power; ANFEVEA;Roland Berger

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

> Fostering of domestic
sales to ensure sufficient
and satisfying growth for
all market participants
> Increasing exports to
build scale and compete
on global level
> Improvement of
domestic competitiveness to translate sales
growth into production
growth for established
player
2020
Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx4

For the next decade, Brazil is forecasted to experience a period of
attractive domestic growth
Brazilian expected automotive sales growth [m vehicles]
FORECAST BASED ON JD POWER

EXPECTATIONS OF MAJOR PLAYERS
> Based on the expectations from JD Power,
Brazil shows attractive growth over the
next
next years

+3.6% p.a.

3.1

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.24.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

> These outlooks are confirmed by the
internal expectations of the OEMs
> Volkswagen and Ford forecast 4 m
vehicles sold by 2014, General Motors
and FIAT foresee an even faster sales
growth, expecting the 4 m sales mark to be
achieved by 2013 resp. already by 2012

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

JD Power forecast
Source: JD Power;Anfavea; clippings; Roland Berger

Extrapolation
Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx

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Based on macroeconomic expectations, even higher annual sales
seem feasible
Validation of vehicle sales forecast
FORECAST ANALYSIS BASED ON DIFFERENT INDICATORS [m units]
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
0.0

FINDINGS

> Based on regression analysis
using automotive householdspending
spending power, disposable
Disposable
2 = 85.7%)
income (R
income and nominal GDP, the
JD Power forecasts appear in
Automotive
line in the short to mid term
spending
but too conservative in the
power (R2 = 95.6%)
long term
Nominal
> A sales forecast of signifiGDP (R2 = 91.8%)
cantly more than 5 m vehicles
JD Power
by 2020 seems likely
(extrapolation)
> This sales forecast mayrequire additional efforts and
measures by the industry as
well as the Brazilian
government
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: J.D. Power; EIU; clippings; Roland Berger

Seminário AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx

6

Joint industry-governmental actions could be undertaken to drive
domestic sales growth in Brazil
Measure to drive automotive...
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