Luxury market study 2011

Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study,
2011
10th Edition, October 2011

This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent

2010-2011: two phenomenal years for personal luxury goods despite global events
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market trend (1995-2011E, €B)
Japan
earthquake
Sept 11

SARS $/€

Subprime & Socio-Economic financial crisis Turbulence

10%
13%

2

2011: yet another peak in personal luxury goods
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market Trend (2009-2011E, €B)

2009: CRISIS

+10 %
+13 %

• Economic downturn
• Lowest consumer confidence ever
• Strong consumption reduction in mature markets, only China growing

2010: REBOUND
• First signs of economic healing
• Strong rebound in consumer confidence of luxury consumers
• Channel & wardrobe restocking
• Chinese customers driving growth

2011: NEW DEAL
• New growth phase for local consumption in mature markets
• China, again, surging
• Japan earthquake effect milder than expected 3

No slow down expected for the 2011 holiday season
Worst scenario
Worldwide Personal
Luxury Goods 2011
Scenarios €B

173

Base scenario

Best scenario

189

+11%
+10%
+9%
2010

Main assumption Assumed
Probability

2011E

• Holiday season in line vs. 2010
(+3% vs last year)

10%

• Holiday season growing vs. 2010
(+7% vs last year)

70%

• Holiday season overperforming (+10% vs last year)

20%
4

In real terms, the market is growing consistently at a double-digit rate
Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Market trend @ current and constant exchange rates (2009-2011E, €B)
23

11

9

173

191

-6

153
@ current exchange rate

+13%

+10%

@ constant exchange rate

+8%

+13%

2009

Constant Currency effect growth

2010

€/$

1.4

5% US dollar appreciation

1.3

€/Y