Globalização

Working Paper No. 2011/92 Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries
The Case of Mozambique

Channing Arndt1, Paul Chinowsky,2 Kenneth Strzepek,3 and James Thurlow4
December 2011 Abstract Climate change may damage road infrastructure to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change’s consequences, we construct a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships and link this to a recursive dynamic economy-wide modelto estimate and compare road damages to other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambiqueand simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth.../ Keywords: climate change, infrastructure vulnerability, productivity, economic growth, Mozambique JEL classification: Q54, O44, O55

1

University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics, email: [e-mail], 2University of Colorado, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering,3Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 4UNU-WIDER..

This study has been prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on Development under Climate Change, directed by Channing Arndt. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions to the project by the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency—Sida, and the financial contributions to the research programme by the governments of Denmark (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development).

and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. An adaptation policy of gradual evolution towards road designs that accommodate higher temperatures