Avaliacao do prognostico de temperatura

Avaliação do prognóstico da temperatura do ar do modelo WRF para área urbana de Manaus
*Jeanne Moreira de Sousa
1
; Alessandro Renê Souza do Espirito Santo1
; Luiz Antonio Candido1
;
Jair Max Furtunato Maia
2
; Livia Oliveira
1
; Julio Tota
1
; Antonio Ocimar Manzi
1
1. Núcleo de Modelagem Climática e Ambiental – NMCA/INPA-UEA
2. Universidade do Estado do Amazonas – UEA
*[e-mail]
Abstract
Predicting the weather and climate in large cities is remains a challenge because there are diverse processes and factors that determine or influence atmospheric condition at various time and space scales. Consequently, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of connection between local climate (influenced by urbanization) and those due to larger scales. Therefore, the application of meteorological models, which have become more capable of representing the diverse atmospheric processes at the various scales, is essential. The application of meteorological models at the urban scale, need, in addition to regional-scale data, urban observations for validation of these models. In this paper, we describe the application of the WRF model (Weather Research and
Forecasting) to represent the urban-scale atmospheric conditions (1km resolution).
Model results are validated against observed air temperature at 2m obtained from a number of sites in urbanized zones of Manaus. The results show the WRF reproduceds well the gradient in air temperature between urban and forested areas and between land surface and the Rio Negro. Improvements in the representation of the types of mosaics city are required for all errors are reduced.
Keywords: Urbanization, Climate Modeling, Multi-scale.
1. Introdução
O clima de uma região apresenta grande influência sobre as atividades humanas. Por outro lado, o ser humano pode também contribuir para provocar alterações no meio ambiente que podem ser irreversíveis (Costa e Mattos, 1998). Segundo Candido et al.