Metodos econometricos

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Introduction ......................................................................................................................3
Interest / purpose of study ................................................................................................4
Chapter I-Factors that may influence unemployment (Economic Theory) ......................4
Variables to be included inModel.....................................................................................5
Table 1 - Variables to be included in the model and its symbolism..................................5
-Equation Econometric Model (Multiple Linear Regression Model)5.............................5
Chapter II-linear regression using the method of least squares (OLS-OLS)....................5
Table 1 - Models andtheir components............................................................................6
Overall significance of the explanatory variables.............................................................7
Correlation matrix.............................................................................................................7
Table 1 - Correlation coefficients betweenvariables........................................................8
Chapter III-12 Classical hypothesis..................................................................................9
Multicollinearity................................................................................................................9
CHART 2 - Variance inflating factors(VIF)....................................................................9
Normality..........................................................................................................................9
Figure 2 - Normal waste...................................................................................................9Heteroscedasticity.....................................................................................................................10
autocorrelation.................................................................................................................12
Classical hypothesis (model 4)........................................................................................13
autocorrelation.................................................................................................................14conclusion........................................................................................................................14
bibliography.....................................................................................................................15
annexes............................................................................................................................16Introduction

Today unemployment is a problem that affects everyone, every day more people are not your job, this is due also to the recession that economies go through. Since the episode of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers to economic growth prospects have been deteriorating month by month and rising unemployment and visible and worrisome.
Unemploymentin Portugal may reach record highs in 2010 according to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) should even reach double-digit percentage.
  The phenomenon of unemployment has always been one of the problems of any society, but with the sharp rise that has suffered in recent years has become a problem either economic, political and social, this always being discussed by the media and society of agenerally.
With regard to Portugal despite these discussions, sometimes does not reach a common consensus for how best to combat this "cause" of unquestionable importance.
Throughout the work to try to understand how the determinants of gross fixed capital formation, inflation, exports and private consumption, which I considered relevant in obtaining unemployment rates relate to this, and...
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