Imf outlook update

World Economic and Financial Surveys

World Economic outlook

April 2013

Hopes, Realities, Risks

International Monetary Fund

©2013 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Composition: Maryland Composition

Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. — Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980– v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365). — (1986– : World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877) Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles. Has occasional updates, 1984– 1. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals. 3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-61635-555-5

Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. Tel.: [phone] Fax: [phone] E-mail: [e-mail] www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.imf.org

ConTEnTS

Assumptions and Conventions Further Information and Data Preface Foreword Executive Summary Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies Activity Is Beginning to Recover after the Slowdown in 2012 Inflation Pressure Remains Generally under Control Risks Are Still High in the Medium Term Policy Challenges Center on Debt in Advanced Economies and Potential Excesses in Emerging Market and Developing Economies Special Feature: Commodity Market Review Box 1.1. The Great Divergence of Policies Box 1.2. Public Debt Overhang and Private Sector Performance Box 1.3. The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area References Chapter 2. Country and